i am a big fan of the philosophy of that jesus fellow, as formulated by him and his very early followers. after that first couple hundred years, other folks tended to screw it up a bit. or maybe i'm getting soft in my old age:

i am not a qualified investment adviser. i would never offer anyone investment advice. anyone who took anything i say or write as investment advice is making a big mistake. what i say and write is just my dumb opinion, nothing more.

that said, friends who have known over the years, please, please, don't place or leave any of your money in a stock market riddled with fraud, deceit, accounting bullshit, and all the rest.

when the fraud is uncovered (when, not if), the market will fall to where it logically belongs, based on the crap fundamental facts of our now crap economy. high unemployment, drowning in public and private debt, housing market that is no where near finished falling.

this is inevitable. just a matter of timing.

the time is nigh. please sell your stocks. i predict the market will reach new lows before 12/31/09. less than 666 on the s+p 500; less than 6469 for the dow.

the only logical action when the markets are completely dishonest and being supported by faith, hope, and government bullshit, is in cash.

don't forget what happened last year. last september and october. don't you wish you had been in cash then, safely out of the stock market?

that is going to happen again.

oh, if i am wrong? you still have your cash. if i am right, you lose what you have 'invested' in the market.

fractals, fartcalls; tomato, tomahto.

i am again shaken by the amount of wishing and hoping that intelligent people have substituted for critical thinking, analysis, and questioning of those in power, regarding our dismal economic present and immediate future.

like last september never happened. like facts of arithmetic and history don't matter. like "we had no other choice" is a rational explanation for government actions.

oh well. maybe they are right, and i am wrong. maybe those monkeys will fly out of my butt.

a year from now, the general economy will be so bad, no one will be able to deny reality any longer. much higher unemployment; many state governments unable to borrow a dime from the bond market, dozens of corporate bankruptcies among the fortune and the s+p 500s; residential and commercial real estate markets significantly down from today; and who knows what further details? these generalities i predict. more specifically, s+p 500 index in the 500s by 12/31/09.

the successful temporary propping of both the stock and bond markets by ben bernanke is about to end. best case, he will be able to save one of the two. hint--it will be the one where the chinese have all their us dollars. last i looked, pension funds don't have any nuclear submarines.

its beginning to look a lot like a wild card race

Thursday July 30 7:15PM Phillies SOLD
Friday July 31 7:15PM Phillies SOLD
Saturday August 01 6:05PM Phillies SOLD
Sunday August 02 1:05PM Phillies SOLD

Friday August 07 7:15PM Reds SOLD
Saturday August 08 1:05 PM Reds SOLD
Sunday August 09 1:05PM Reds SOLD

Monday August 10 7:15PM Dodgers SOLD
Tuesday August 11 7:15PM Dodgers SOLD
Wednesday August 12 12:45PM Dodgers SOLD


Tuesday August 25 7:15PM Dbacks
Wednesday August 26 7:15PM Dbacks
Thursday August 27 7:15PM Dbacks SOLD

Friday August 28 7:15PM Rockies SOLD
Saturday August 29 6:05 PM Rockies
Sunday August 30 1:05PM Rockies