just a matter of when  

i have laid off the frequency of my econ rants. partly for my own mental health, partly to avoid reader burnout (the three people who read this mess; but a few more folks over at the sportsfrog.com/swamp indulge my ravings by reading them then taunting and making fun of me).

make no mistake. things remain dire, in my estimation. nothing at all has been learned by the leaders, actual and nominal leaders both. nothing at all has been done to define and fix the severe flaws in the economy that lead to the events of 2008-09. absolutely nothing.

the lehman 'revelations' released last week were simple confirmation of significant crimes that were well known on the inside, well suspected by outsiders. while i am slightly surprised at how much response to the black and white exposure of the frauds committed by dick fuld, erin callan, and most significantly tim geithner, i expect not much will result. either the rumpus will die down and the crimes ignored; or fuld will be sacrificed to temporarily sate the crowd with a criminal indictment, and timmy will be forced to resign. big fucking whoop. then the rumpus will die down.

i remain humbled at how long the charade can continue; how many months and years the insolvent banks can be kept alive with accounting and political lies (and a couple trillion of public money, wasted). but i have zero doubt the time frame they can keep it going is considerably shorter than 'forever'. and i remind myself that months and years are pretty damn short increments. compared to 1929-1940, or to the collapse of the french monarchy, and subsequent republic, or to the collapse of the russian empire of the 19th century. or their 20th century empire. berlin wall fell in 1989; the russian default was nine years later.

timing is a bitch. but once prepared, psychologically and fiscally, the waiting doesn't have to be the hardest part.

take away the stock market indices, and the treasury bond prices that refuse to die, every other factor remains dismal. unemployment. foreclosures and real estate prices, residential and commercial. tax collection figures. state and municipal finances, being literally choked to death by public employee unions demands and pensions, and stupid politicians who cannot count or see reality in front of their faces. and federal finances aren't so bright either. the tightrope being walked between printing and not printing has thinned to a thread. impossible to predict if a loss of balance, a snapping of the thread, or continued thinning to the point of nonexistence will be the mode of the failure. but easy to predict the subesquent gravitaional effect. (i think i stretched that metaphor just as thinly.)

we remain completely and absolutely destined for a fucking. yet nearly everyone is so calm and happy. weird.